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Author Topic: USA-China trade war (2018): Prediction  (Read 227 times)

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  • USA-China trade war (2018): Prediction
    « on: July 29, 2018, 09:18:08 PM »
    USA-China trade war (2018): Prediction

    What's going to happen next?

    Who's the winner?

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  • Re: USA-China trade war (2018): Prediction
    « Reply #1 on: July 29, 2018, 09:20:00 PM »
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  • Re: USA-China trade war (2018): Prediction
    « Reply #2 on: July 29, 2018, 10:54:50 PM »
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    If everything in life is measurable, then understanding destiny would be as simple as counting 1, 2, and 3.

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  • Re: USA-China trade war (2018): Prediction
    « Reply #3 on: July 29, 2018, 11:15:09 PM »
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  • Re: USA-China trade war (2018): Prediction
    « Reply #4 on: July 30, 2018, 12:17:49 AM »
    USD and RMB will be affected in theory a zero sum game
    In reality trade balance favours USD in short term supported by commodities
    However RMB projection over longer term is favoured due key advantages such as multilateral policies, population demographic growth and aggregate positioning in global industries
    “Study the past if you would define the future.” ― Confucius
    “Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind.” ― Einstein

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  • Re: USA-China trade war (2018): Prediction
    « Reply #5 on: July 30, 2018, 12:21:10 AM »
    Should also mention it is relative to each currency pair
    “Study the past if you would define the future.” ― Confucius
    “Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind.” ― Einstein

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  • Re: USA-China trade war (2018): Prediction
    « Reply #6 on: July 30, 2018, 01:23:36 AM »
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    « Last Edit: July 30, 2018, 01:54:46 AM by tyc »
    If everything in life is measurable, then understanding destiny would be as simple as counting 1, 2, and 3.

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    Re: USA-China trade war (2018): Prediction
    « Reply #7 on: July 30, 2018, 09:51:26 AM »
    My opinion.

    Chinese would be loser in within 10 years, but bounce back strongly after that...
    1. Chinese population is known as a country with high saving, so consumption growth would be difficult to pump up.
    2. China policy is manufacturing and production based, china needs consumer all around the world to dump her excess production.
    3. China need to spend more in infrastructure in order to absorb all materials into China.

    Strength:
    1. If courting Europe policy is successful, China connects 80% of world population into its own sphere. The population span is: Asia, Europe, Africa. She can connect it with belt and road project. So in the end, USA would be left behind with only 20% of population to connect with.
    2. China has own advantage of being the world most populated country, in which she has "economies of scale". Everything produced by China is cheaper than other places.
    3. China has very good relationship with... AFRICA. The reason of why China courts Africa is that Africa country policy towards China is not as hostile as SE Asia, India or Middle East. Plus Africa has nothing, no one wants to develop there, including USA. And best of all, Africa has the abundant source of raw material in the world. No one goes there to develop one, so the resource still intact.
    4. China has a strong culture of industrial and economic snooping (IP theft), in which it is state backing. This one is more dangerous than political sabotaging.



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    Re: USA-China trade war (2018): Prediction
    « Reply #8 on: July 30, 2018, 04:42:04 PM »
    @tyc

    Actually I am disagree with you about one thing.
    Economy is actually zero sum game. When we take one dollar, actually our trade partner give one dollar.
    Of course when we present it to the consumer, they would be surprised and reject the liberalization.

    The only thing that we benefit in trade is: trade in innovation and idea.
    When we can achieve one thing (which cost USD 1 become USD 0.5), it means that we produce two instead of one.
    This is something that can be achieved by trade, in which others cannot achieve.

    The one that Donald Trump want to impose is: trade goods but not trade ideas.
    That is impossible, because China population is huge, and no one want to miss that opportunity.
    So, I think Donald Trump is making some point but miss the logic on this one. There is no trade without transferring ideas.

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  • Re: USA-China trade war (2018): Prediction
    « Reply #9 on: July 30, 2018, 05:16:32 PM »
    @tyc

    Actually I am disagree with you about one thing.
    Economy is actually zero sum game. When we take one dollar, actually our trade partner give one dollar.
    Of course when we present it to the consumer, they would be surprised and reject the liberalization.

    The only thing that we benefit in trade is: trade in innovation and idea.
    When we can achieve one thing (which cost USD 1 become USD 0.5), it means that we produce two instead of one.
    This is something that can be achieved by trade, in which others cannot achieve.

    The one that Donald Trump want to impose is: trade goods but not trade ideas.
    That is impossible, because China population is huge, and no one want to miss that opportunity.
    So, I think Donald Trump is making some point but miss the logic on this one. There is no trade without transferring ideas.

    There always have 2 sides of a story.

    Let's hear what the American says ;D:


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    Re: USA-China trade war (2018): Prediction
    « Reply #9 on: July 30, 2018, 05:16:32 PM »
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