Author Topic: History always repeat itself - What is your take on an upcoming recession?  (Read 356 times)

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Offline PoHeYou

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  • Hello people!! This is not an economic discussion~~  :-*

    More of how we interpret events, and these interpretations are a combination of our own feelings, our own experience and knowledge, there is no right or wrong!!

    I personally see these recessions as a transition to make better of the economy or maybe the world too, just like how from time-to-time, we need to drink liang teh to detox, the bitter medicine can make one better. Of course, there are winners and losers from each event, and some take longer to recover from it and some completely undergo some form of restructuring to stay relevant, after all it is quite subjective.

    A few prominent ones that we can recall in the last 3 decades:

    1) 1985* plaza accord - Singapore got hit, but ultimately benefitted Asia
    2) 1997* - Asian Financial Crisis, thai baht got hit hard first then SEA economies took the hit
    3) 2000 dot com bust- due to specualtion of a new technology - Internet, electronics semi con driven economies took a hit
    4) 2003 SARS - virus
    5) 2008* - Global Financial Crisis (subprime + crap bonds)
    6) 2019?????

    I personally believe bazi is the study of time and events, and just as in bazi we have the 12 earthly, i believe each cycle actually moves in period of 12 years. some say 10, that's quite close.

    Using singapore as an example since they grew to a stage where any signs of recessions would appear in singapore first and recently they had a minor downturn, i call this the Singapore-recession-indicator.. so 20 years prior to 1) was singapore's independence and at 1985 they experienced their first recession (economists would say due to different phase of economy.... i dont disagree)

    While it is commonly observed that every 10 years cycle, there will be a recession, is it possible, that there will reach a phase where by once cycle will be "skipped" *where the stars are aligned*?

    I am starting this post because each recession gives birth to a new set of winners and losers, and of course all of us will be happy to be in the shoes of the winners.

    And with each recession passing, we can see the global economy becoming increasingly integrated, but of course not all the economies are active participants in the global arena yet (due to different economic stage).

    I personally feel that we can rule out a recession that impacts globally that will be is supposed to happen 10 years after 2008(to 2010), maybe it will take a 20 years break before the next one?

    Many people feels that trump will be the reason, I dont share the same opinion, even before he got elected, I know that in a relatively peaceful era, we need someone like Trump for us to cherish the peacefulness, and of course domestically US politics need a shift from obama politics to have a form of balance.

    Offline jiyou2020

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